China's Game for Taiwan

Recently China protested a speech given by the leader of Taiwan (or Republic of China). China’s protest consisted of an unannounced “exercise” simulating a “blockade” of Taiwan as reported here:

… China’s 13-hour simulated blockade of Taiwan that began on Monday, Oct. 14, using a record-breaking number of planes, an aircraft carrier, and both Navy and Coast Guard vessels, was not quite so simple as China "punishing" Taiwan’s new president William Lai for comments he’s made since taking office in May of this year. 

Not only did the Chinese encircle Taiwan, they had a joint Russian and Chinese task group standing off to the north. While this group may have an interdiction mission should any nation try to come to the aid of the ROC, the reason purpose of the entire exercise was to warn the United States:

The location of these ships at those times, Chang asserted, means they cannot have been plausibly connected to the short Taiwan blockade. "The real target is the United States," he told Fox News Digital. "They were using a very old Chinese strategy called ‘encircling the point/striking the reinforcement;’ in other words, practicing ways to ambush the U.S. Navy if it heads towards an already held-hostage Taiwan. If China can convince the U.S. that intervening in any actions it chooses to take in the Taiwan Strait is not worth the risk, then Beijing wins."

In my view, the entire exercise points to another strategy which is in keeping with most of China’s recent aggressive claims of hegemony over large areas of the South China Sea and treating their neighbors as “trespassers” on what China states is its sovereign territory and territorial waters.

This strategy would use China’s large Coast Guard and Maritime Militia to begin a “quarantine” of the waters between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan as well as the other water space around Taiwan. This would be justified by the Chinese as mere patrols of water that have long belonged to China, since Taiwan is just an errant province. China will point that many nations do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state. Any intervention would be shouted about by the Chinese as interference in their internal affairs. Any action taken against their Coast Guard and Maritime Militia would be cast as attacks on non-naval forces. You can count on the Chinese public relations mill going on full “America is evil” rants.

All of which would pose an interesting challenge on how or even what to do if this strategy is employed. The Executive Branch would have to carefully weigh the risks of any activity to attempt to negate the “quarantine” in terms of risk and reward. Frankly, from where I sit that is weighing process would be much easier if the US forces were up to full capacity, with solid lines of sustainment, and systems to deal with the Chinese shore based forces as well as their navy and navy-like fleet.